The Tipping Point

More than 200 years ago Benjamin Franklin, writing as Poor Richard, penned this epigram:

“A little neglect may breed mischief; for want of a nail the shoe was lost; for want of a shoe the horse was lost; for want of a horse the rider was lost; for want of the rider the battle was lost.”

It is the most lucid example I know of of the basic principle of Chaos Theory, which holds that very often seemingly small causes can lead to significant and unpredictable consequences. Later, with the perspective that only hindsight can give, we look back and say, “Ah, that apparently insignificant incident seems to have been the turning point that led to this surprisingly large result.”

What’s more, since whatever we are talking about --- the weather, the stock market, the play-out of a political endeavor --- is always made up of a myriad of ostensibly small and unrelated incidents and decisions, we cannot recognize at the time that any given occurrence will in fact turnout to be the tipping point.

The betrayal of Paul Hackett by the Democratic Party leadership in Ohio was the tipping point for my disaffection from the Democratic Party. I use the word “betrayal” advisedly, because that is how I perceive it. Paul Hackett was saying the things I believe needed to be said, indeed he was pretty much the only Democrat who was. The spin that the other candidate has more name recognition, has more money, blah, blah., is, as far as I’m concerned just that, spin. {An aside to the Democratic leadership: Quit trying to play the spin game, the Republicans are much better at it than you are!}

Will political historians 10, 20, 30 years from now be looking back and say, “Aha, the Paul Hackett candidacy was the beginning of the end for the Democratic Party. That was the turning point when thousands of Democrats deserted the party and…”? And what? Formed a new party? Went to another existing party?
Probably not… But then again, the blacksmith who didn’t fix the nail in the horse’s shoe because he was too busy, too lazy, too whatever, probably didn’t think one small missing nail was any big deal either.